On November 7, pollsters pegged Republicans’ chances of retaking the U.S. Senate at 59%; on November 9, one Senate seat flipped R to D (Pennsylvania) and four seats were not final. And, while the U.S. House flipped from Democrat control to Republican control as was widely expected, the new Republican majority will not be as sizeable as predicted.
More of the same
What will these tight margins mean for policy results for the rest of President Biden’s term? The razor-thin margins in both the House and the Senate likely mean that gridlock will continue for the next two years.
Here in Texas, the election results yielded few surprises. Neither of Texas’ U.S. Senators were on the ballot in 2022, so all attention was focused on the Texans running for the U.S. House. As a result of the 2020 Census, Texas’ House delegation will now number 38.
The partisan split for Texas’ Congressional delegation will be 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Even though national Republicans invested heavily in three races in South Texas, only one Republican — Monica De La Cruz in TX-15 — was victorious. De La Cruz secured the seat that runs from McAllen all the way to Seguin by more than eight points. She will be the first Republican to represent TX-15.
Vicente Gonzalez — a member of the House Financial Services Committee and who currently represents TX-15 — successfully unseated Mayra Flores, the Republican who won the seat in June’s special election in TX-34. Gonzalez also won by more than eight points.
Laredo Democrat Henry Cuellar fended off a challenge by former Ted Cruz staffer Cassy Garcia to secure his tenth term in office. Despite assurances from “experts” that TX-28 was a competitive seat, Cuellar easily won reelection by more than 13 points.
Statewide performance
Republicans performed as expected at the state level. Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, Attorney General Paxton, Comptroller Hegar, Ag Commissioner Miller, Railroad Commissioner Christian and new Land Commissioner Buckingham all received more than 53% of the total vote. This assures a continued commitment to pro-business issues by all of Texas’ statewide officeholders.
In the Texas Senate, the morning after the election it appeared as though there will be 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats in the 31-member body. SD-27, which stretches from Brownsville and Cameron County in the south all the way north through Beeville and Bee County, was separated by fewer than 600 votes. Morgan LaMantia, the Democrat, received 87,860 votes, and Adam Hinojosa, the Republican received 87,291. Because the difference between the number of votes received by Hinojosa and the number of votes received by LaMantia, the Democrat 569-votes ahead, is less than 10% of the total number of votes LaMantia received, Hinojosa has the right to request a recount. As of the writing this article, the Hinojosa camp has not indicated whether he will request a recount.
In the Texas House, Republicans picked up four seats from last session, meaning they will have an 86-64 edge of Democrats in 2023. No incumbent House members lost their reelection bids.
Beaumont Republican and current House Speaker Dade Phelan will likely serve as Speaker of the Texas House for another term (House members elect the Speaker on the first day of the legislative session.)
The continuation of Phelan’s tenure is a good sign that the House will run smoothly in 2023. Because of retirements, we will see a change in a few House Committee Chairs; however, this process will not start from scratch as it did Phelan’s first session as Speaker, so the learning curve will not be as steep.
GOTV efforts
TBA worked hard to build banker awareness of the 2022 elections — both in the spring primaries and the November 8 General Election. We intend to build on the momentum and interest we created in the legislative process for Texas’ more than 200,000 bankers as we head into new legislative sessions in Austin and Washington in 2023.
Our annual trip to Washington, D.C., will be April 19-22, 2023, and our biennial trip to Austin will be April 4-5. Every Texas banker is invited to participate — and we hope each of you will consider joining us.
Your TBA staff is looking forward to representing your interests in Austin and Washington in 2023 and look forward to working alongside each of you to ensure that Texans continue to have access to the best banking services in the nation.